Zhang Guobao: "Opportunity" in the "Crisis" of the Current Energy Situation


release time:

2010-05-31

The international financial crisis has spread widely, deeply affected, and spread rapidly, beyond people's expectations. The financial crisis has brought severe challenges to my country's energy industry, and also provided a rare opportunity for adjustment. We must, in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on economic work, assess the situation, make overall plans, turn "crisis" into "opportunities", and turn pressure into driving force, continue to promote the scientific development of my country's energy industry, and provide support for maintaining stable and rapid economic development. Solid energy security.

1. The performance of "dangerous"

(1) Declining energy demand

1. Demand for electricity falls. From January to November this year, the national electricity consumption of the whole society was 3.1531 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%. The monthly electricity consumption in October fell by 3.7% year-on-year, which is the first time since 1999 that the electricity consumption in a single month has dropped year-on-year, while the monthly electricity consumption in November fell by 8.6% year-on-year. negative effects are fully manifested.

  2. Oil demand fell. In the second half of this year, the financial crisis intensified, resulting in a decline in oil demand and a rapid increase in crude oil inventories in OECD countries. At the end of October 2008, its inventory was sufficient to sustain demand for 56.8 days, well above the 4-year average. The severe downturn in the global economy has led to a significant decline in global crude oil demand, which has put unprecedented downward pressure on oil prices. At present, the amount of crude oil entering the market still far exceeds the actual demand. OPEC will cut output by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) under a new deal to cut output reached on Dec. 17. The domestic demand for refined oil has also dropped significantly. The supply of refined oil has changed from insufficient supply in the first half of the year to oversupply, and some areas have already seen the phenomenon of stockpiling.

3. Coal demand fell. In the first three quarters of 2008, my country's cumulative coal consumption was 2.028 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous year. percentage point. In October, the shortage of coal supply this summer was changed. The national coal social inventory was 178 million tons, an increase of 29.9% over July; in early December, the national coal social inventory reached 184 million tons, while the coal inventory of the five major power generation groups reached 50 million tons. The above is the highest level in history, and the number of days for coal storage in power plants is also close to one month.

(2) Oil and coal prices fell

  1. oil prices. The February light, sweet crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $35.35 a barrel on Dec. 24 as energy demand continued to decline due to the recession. International oil prices have fallen 76% since hitting a record high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

  2. coal price. Since July, international coal prices have been declining. The BJ index, which represents the spot price of thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific region, hit an all-time high of $190.95 on July 3 and then quickly fell back. The price of the BJ index was $102.55 on November 6, a drop of nearly $100 in four months. Affected by unfavorable factors such as the continued weakening of demand, the domestic coal price has continued to decline. On November 24, the closing price of Datong Youmix with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg in Qinhuangdao Port was 680-700 yuan/ton, down 22% from the price two weeks ago; Shanxi with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal/kg The price of excellent mixed liquidation fell even more.

3. Coal chemical and petrochemical prices. Since September, the large-scale production stoppage and production reduction in iron and steel enterprises have quickly transmitted and directly affected the coke industry. The coke sales price has dropped by about 1,000 yuan/ton compared with August. The market prices of domestic petroleum and chemical products continued to fall on a large scale. Among the 168 products tracked by the Petrochemical Association, 138 fell month-on-month in October, accounting for 82.1%. Taking methanol as an example, the price fell below 2,400 yuan/ton in mid-October, and fell to about 2,000 yuan/ton at the end of October, and the production enterprises were basically in a state of loss.

(3) The operating difficulties of energy enterprises have intensified

  1. Power generation company

Due to the economic downturn, the demand for electricity has decreased, and the installed capacity of domestic power generation has maintained rapid growth, resulting in a continuous decline in the utilization rate of power generation equipment. From January to November, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide was 4,317 hours, 269 hours lower than the same period last year. Among them, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment was 4,508 hours, a decrease of 326 hours compared with the same period last year. According to the State Grid Corporation of China's ten-day report, the national single-month power generation in November fell by 7.13% compared with the same period last year, of which thermal power generation fell by 13.77% year-on-year. Taking the West Inner Mongolia Power Grid as an example, the maximum power supply load of the West Inner Mongolia Power Grid dropped to 6.9 million kilowatts in November, a decrease of 38.2%.

Affected by factors such as the rise in thermal coal prices before the third quarter of this year and the decline in electricity demand due to the financial crisis, the industry-wide losses of power generation companies continued to expand. From January to October, the five major power generation enterprise groups lost a total of 26.8 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 28.3 billion yuan in the same period last year.

It is more difficult for power generation enterprises to obtain financing. In terms of direct financing, the stock market has plummeted one after another, market confidence has been low, and companies have been severely hindered by issuing stock financing channels; due to overall losses, most listed power generation companies have lost their qualifications for public issuance of stock financing. In terms of indirect financing, the bank's credit review of loss-making power generation enterprises is becoming more and more stringent, and the difficulty of financing is further increased.

  2. Petroleum and petrochemical enterprises

In the first three quarters of CNPC, the company's operating income and taxes paid increased by 42% and 44% year-on-year. However, due to factors such as policy losses in the refining business, special income payments and rising raw material prices, realized profits fell by 28% year-on-year. The company's cash flow showed negative growth due to declining profits. Recently, the domestic refined oil market demand has decreased, sales have dropped sharply, and inventories have continued to rise, and major oil refining companies have begun to reduce production capacity; the chemical product market has entered a period of economic downturn, prices have fallen sharply, and products have been seriously unsalable, all of which have seriously affected the company's benefits. .

The asset-liability ratio of Sinopec Group Corporation is over 60%, and its cash flow is very tight. The refined oil market began to shrink, and the refining industry suffered policy losses. The Qingdao Refinery lost 4 billion yuan in three months after it was put into operation. Due to price factors, smuggling activities are rampant, and high-priced crude oil cannot be digested, which seriously affects the company's efficiency.

3. fuel business

Taking China Coal Group with a relatively complete coal industry chain as an example, the company's main core business revenue in October was 13.3% and 10.3% lower than the revenue levels in the second and third quarters, respectively, and its profits were 32% and 30% lower than the average levels in the second and third quarters. %.